Predictions
I know it's far out, but I was watching MSNBC last night and saw two guys, one being Bill Kristol, making predictions about the 2008 Presidential race and thought I'd take a shot at the many possibilities.
In the 2006 race, the most highly publicized match will be between Pirro and Clinton. Clinton will take it (60% - 36%) and will be in the Democratic Primary of 2008. On the Dem side, Clinton, Biden, and Edwards will fight it off on two different platforms about foreign policy (Iraq/terrorism) but agree on one thing - anything but Bush's successor. Clinton will beat out Biden with a 10% lead. I don't know who she'll ask to be a running-mate.
On the Repub side, since running Santorum said he won't be running, there will be three people running for the Republican ticket. That will be Giuliani, McCain, and Rice. Giuliani is loved by almost everyone, but Rice will be pumped up in the conservative circuit to combat Hillary as the Dem candidate. Rice will take the primary by a small percentage and ask McCain to be her running-mate.
So, we have it down to Hillary vs. Condi. Condi will win with a 7-10% lead. I figure this for two reasons. The first: Our troop involvement in Iraq will be dwindling down by this time and Repubs will be seen as victors for setting up a semi-democratic state in Iraq. The second: We have been waiting 18 months for the other terrorist act shoe to drop. I'm not a prophet, but I see this happening near the end of 2006 or 2007 in which the electorate will rally around their leader, a Republican. This will also contribute to a more conservative feel in the swing area. People tend not to care about civil rights immediately after an attack. Condi's record appears cleaner to the general public as well, where Hilary's is... well... not the greatest.
That's my humble prediction. Rice/McCain '08.
posted by Rich Vos at 2:51 PM
4 Comments:
Bush seen as a victor in Iraq? Yeah, because we found WMD's, totally stopped the rise of Islamic terrorism, and ended any kind of problems with oil right?
If we leave Iraq with minimal occupying U.S. troops and a working theo-democracy, Bush will be seen as a victor. We did not find WMD's, but the electorate, as we saw in 2004, doesn't care much about that. Obviously, you do. And do I. The Repubs will focus on the outcome of the Iraq war and there will be many swing voters that will identify the victory in Iraq (that being defined as a working democracy in a Middle Eastern country) with the administration, one of whom is Condi Rice.
In the future, please identify yourself. Thanks.
With expectations of 10,000 dead and the turnout being far far less, the electorate will be quicker to forget the follies of the administration in the Katrina aftermath. As we have seen with 9/11 and the London bombings, we as a nation are quick to forget, especially when the death toll isn't as high as predicted.
As for the low approval rating, barring another attack (that would boost the administration's ratings), it will stay about the same for six months and raise slightly over the next 3 years. This will make about a fifty/fifty split for the 2008 primaries and election.
Check out the public approval rating of the press. It has always been overwhelmingly low, with very few high points. Each president has a low point, and that comes in the middle of his second term.
I thought of Clinton's VP for the 2008 race - John Edwards.
What can I say, chick's dig'em.
...and he says he can make cripples walk.
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