The 2008 election is a real free-for-all. It reminds me of the
Simpsons' episode "Run, Homer, Run" in which dozens of
Springfieldians run for Mayor. (It was a parody of Gray Davis' recall election.) With everyone believing they have a shot at filling G.W.'s shoes, I've put together a few thoughts on some of the contestants.
DemocratsSenator Hillary Clinton: It's hard for a front-runner to keep the lead. It doesn't help that it's her against every other candidate. She's disliked by the far left and hated by the far right. She may gain popularity among the moderate voters, but
Hil will do more to rally the Conservative base than the anti-war zealots.
Ruling: Hil has the best shot at winning the primary, but will hurt her party more than she helps it.Senator Barack Obama: He's the latest American Idol contestant. Even Simon
Cowell would like his "I'm just a normal guy" routine. It seems to be working. However, getting votes is the key to an election and if he's in a race against the attack dog herself, (see above) it's going to be hard to garnish enough of a following to even win the Iowa caucus.
Ruling: This guy may be a stud you'd wanna chit-chat with at a bar, but he's no president.Dennis Kucinich: I was thrilled when I heard the former (almost recalled) mayor was running. There is always a need for at least one clown in a circus (See: Dean, Perot,
Dukakis). Unfortunately, the electorate doesn't know who he is. If he gathers five percent of the vote in the primary, I'd be shocked. Kucinich is running solely on ideological grounds.
Ruling: Kucinich has as much of a chance at winning as Jack Bauer does at becoming ACLU president.John Edwards: For him, Round Two has to go better than the first. Edwards may be the only
candidate able to rally a firm Democratic base. His "aw shucks, mister" son-of-a-mill-worker
schtick may even be attractive to moderates, but his radical-left agenda will hinder his efforts, not help them.
Ruling: California may love him, but he won't be able to turn the Midwest blue.Bill Richardson: Pundits say, "Well, he does have a chance if
Obama and Clinton fall early in the game." The people who matter - voters - say, "Bill who?"
Ruling: This governor has only a slim chance in New Mexico.Al Gore, Joe
Biden, and John Kerry have yet to throw their hats into the rings.
Premature Ruling: None of them stand a chance unless the election is a referendum on Global Warming.Prediction: Hillary takes the primary, but still struggles in the much-coveted Midwest.RepublicansJohn McCain: As a lover of Texas
Hold'em, I compare Sen. McCain's complete support of a troop surge to going all-in,
pre-flop, with a K-10 off-suit. He has a pretty good chance of getting top pair, or even a straight, but an ace may match the one Hillary's holding. If the surge goes well, he'll be happy to see that K-K-2 on the flop. If it doesn't work out as planned, that 10-A-7 may not be enough to fall back on.
Ruling: He'll only have a chance if this surge works by October 2008.Mitt Romney: Governor Romney has one thing going for him:
Health care. The change in approach to publicly funded health care across the next two years will definitely shape the 2008 election. Mitt has an attractive approach, even to some members of the GOP. However, being a Mormon won't rally the religious Right.
Ruling: Romney's got an uphill battle that won't last past the primary.Mike Huckabee: This Arkansas governor is the mirrored reflection of Bill Richardson - a nobody. He has a good agenda for America.
Ruling: Huckabee may think he has a chance, but the voters won't give him the time of day.Rudy Giuliani: Hey, it's
everyone's favorite mayor! This guy's been riding his 9/11 heroism and anti-crime stance since 9/12. The right doesn't like him and left writes him off as a nuisance. It seems that the only people who approve of him are the moderates. And we all know moderates don't win elections, your base does.
Ruling: Giuliani won't be able to raise money, let alone beat McCain.Tom Tancredo: Like Mitt, Tom's hoping for an '08 referendum. His: Illegal immigration. Like Richardson, another governor of a Western state, he thinks that if everybody else can play ball, he should too. That doesn't mean he'll win.
Ruling: This guy doesn't stand a chance, but he may bring the illegal immigration debate back to the table.Bill
Frist has yet to show as much interest as he did a year ago, Newt's running only as a "last resort," and it's safe to assume
Condi's out of the equation.
Prediction: McCain will take the primary by 10 points over Giuliani. However, if Newt decides to play ball, you'll have a conservative base happier than a Republican at a Ronald Reagan highway-renaming ceremony.
